All World
Gayatri Pariwar

Inspite of all the expertise deployed in data-collection, modeling and inference in which a large number of talented, skilled and well trained brains are employed for doing the job with high-tech communication and computational instruments and networking, it is amazing to look at the natural capabilities of several species of birds and animals in sensing the future weather and geo-events far more precisely than by the well-known experts using high-tech instruments.

Meteorology departments or weather bureaus in most parts of the world are now well equipped with sophisticated satellite based data collection devices, geo-information systems and remote sensing devices to continuously record the signals and signs of the variations deep under the sea, beneath the earth and far away in the space. However, the multiple dimensions of parameters, random nature and complexity of the data make the analysis difficult and so precise and reliable inference models and accurate predictions continue to elude from their sight. Perhaps this is the reason people often joke that – “If the weather bureau predicts heavy rains, one should better not bother to take any umbrella or raincoat with him, because the atmosphere is known to not only ‘disobey’ but also ‘contradict’ their estimates”.

Electronic media keeps spreading the ‘predictions’ of the local and global weather departments throughout the day so there is no dearth of information. But the question is how reliable that information is?  No doubt, the accuracy of predictive methods has improved significantly over the past two decades, still the lack of precision and time-lapses witnessed in the tragic occurrences of the recent calamities of earthquakes in Gujarat, Indonesia, Tsunami at south-eastern Indian coast, Katrina in the USA, necessitates the need for further advancement of science and technology to face Nature’s challenges with timely preparations.  

The present trends indicate that the predictions using modern technological gadgets are correct on an average scale for more-or-less periodic events. For example, the overall nature of monsoon in a given year generally is in good agreement with what has been inferred a month or fortnight before its onset.  Prominent among the geological events that are prone to bring a drastic environmental shift for South Asia are – El Nino  (associated with the temperature of the Pacific ocean in regions towards coasts of Peru, Latin America) and the pressure belt from Darwin (Australia) to Argentina.  

Correct inference of monsoon plays a key role in national and global economy.  It is more important for countries like India, where the state of agricultural production controls the gross economic growth and this crucial sector largely depends upon monsoons for irrigation. In terms of the best-validated models so far, the inference of monsoon status is made based on estimation of sixteen parameters. Six of these deal with temperature variation pattern, two with snowfall, two with the speeds and directions of winds and five with the patterns of atmospheric pressure in specific regions. Estimators of these based on the current season and previous few years’ data are analyzed to assess the ‘state of monsoon’ in general. Thousands of scientists and data processors are required to work hard for several months, using high-performance computers with specialized statistical and mathematical software for this analysis.

In broad terms, if the model fitting and simulation shows indices based on all of these parameters as satisfactory then the monsoon is predicted as “average”. Similar criteria satisfied by ten to twelve of these indicate above average rainfall during the monsoon. More that twelve of these being favorable implies very good monsoon. The statistics of the Meteorological Department of India support the validity of these criteria. In the year 1988, fourteen of these indices were found favorable. The monsoon that year proved the simulations right, as the rainfall was higher than the record of past fifty years. The scenario was the contrary in the previous year (1987) when only five indices were estimated as above threshold. Most part of our country suffered a drought that year. Similar was the case in 1979 when only two indices had passed the test. Though the data collection devices, simulation technology and methods of modeling were inferior at that time, no index was found satisfactory and the country faced acute drought and almost a famine in many parts.       

In case of extraordinary variations in global geological and weather changes, e.g. the likelihood of Al-nino, etc, the up-to-date data and results of global information systems are also required for adept analysis. This demands on-line communications and Internet processing.  The tasks of predicting the likelihood of storms, cyclones, hurricanes, etc, demand dedicated research by large number of teams of specialists in different centers across the globe. Some of the data-collecting centers for such predictions are placed in the high-risk zones on the coasts and on high-altitudes with extremely tough weather conditions.  Indeed their job is creditable, as their efforts of accurate predictions well in advance amount to saving lives of millions of people and property worth several billions.

The important sectors like fisheries, tourism, aviation, naval and air force services, armed forces posted on the arduous mountain heights also highly depend on the predictions of the weather bureaus.   On regular basis, they issue two to three bulletins each for the farmers and fishermen. Separate bulletins are issued through wireless communications for the Navy and similarly for the Air Force and Military officials posted in remote regions.  In case of the possibility of some abnormality they even release six to ten bulletins giving updated information.  Usually, the warning about a likely cyclone in the sea or a snowstorm on the mountains is now given 48 to 72 hours in advance.

The civil aviation units also need updated information on the pattern of weather conditions esp. fog, thick clouds, darkness due to heavy rainfall, or clear sky etc, for the next twelve hours. This information is desired at least a day in advance to (re)schedule the international and domestic flights accordingly.  For example some white clouds are thick up to 14 to 18 km and the surface of such a cloud circumvents an average area of about a circle of diameter 5 to 15 km. It can produce static electrical potential of the order of thousands volts and thus char the aircrafts passing through it into ashes in no time.

Be that organization of mega global events like the Olympics, World Cup tournaments, international conferences, national or state level events of sports, meetings, rallies, etc, or the out-door planning of an industrial project, a film-shooting or a family picnic/outing, the information on the whether (of the next month week or day!) is desired everywhere for better planning and preparation.

Inspite of all the expertise deployed in data-collection, modeling and inference in which a large number of talented, skilled and well trained brains are employed for doing the job with high-tech communication and computational instruments and networking, it is amazing to look at the natural capabilities of several species of birds and animals in sensing the future weather and geo-events far more precisely than by the well-known experts using high-tech instruments.

If black ants suddenly appear in large numbers even in the forests, it is a definite sign of rise in temperature in the coming days. If they queue up and are seen moving in a haste holding their tiny white eggs, there will be rainfall in a day or two.  Wild elephants give prior warning of heavy rains by running in groups in a peculiar manner – keeping their trunks raised towards the sky. A fish found in Japan can naturally change its colors like a chameleon. When it appears in red color, then there is a strong possibility of rains; its green color corresponds to fall in the temperature. It adopts white color before the onset of summer or rise in temperature. Many people in Japan keep it at home in small aquariums or specially designed jars as a weather forecaster.

White pigeons are also experts in weather prediction. They fly much higher than usual and in a queue a few days before off-season rains.  A wild spider called “Leha” is found in the thick forests of Latin America. If all of a sudden it furiously breaks its huge web then one should take note that there would be heavy rains with stormy winds in next 24 hours. Several birds are also gifted with the expertise to predict cyclonic rains and hurricanes. Saras in the hills of Tibet and Darjiling are famous as most advanced sensors of thunder- showers or heavy rains. Days before, when even the radars of weather departments don’t capture the clouds, these are seen shifting with their ‘families’ to the caves or similar protective grooves between huge rocks. Local residents get alerted by this warning and plan their activities with due protection and safety.       

Several birds found in the gigantic mountains in the Northern hemisphere, amaze the researchers, as these birds sense snowfall almost a month in advance and fly away to safer and warmer places. It is really stunning that even the high-tech instruments of today are able to make predictions of such phenomena only 24 hours in advance, that too only with some probability!    

Most importantly, many animals sense the seismographic vibrations more accurately from a longer distance and much in advance as compared to any of the seismograph developed so far. Moreover their sensors don’t miss it for reasons like weak signals or noise. Most of the wild animals sense the occurrence of earthquake or eruption of volcano from a long distance few days before and behave unusually; they often run away fast in a panic. The pets are also not deprived of this potential. A study in China has affirmed that dogs tied inside the house hurriedly and aggressively attempt breaking their chains and running away more than 24 hours before an earthquake in the surrounding region. Even if not tied they behave unusually a couple of days before an earthquake strikes their or in the neighboring areas a few kilometers away; they stop barking and fighting and also hug each other, as though a mark of ‘goodbye’ before the final journey. Similar behavior is observed in rats, cats and some other pets. The ‘Chibie’ birds of Japan fly away to far distant places a day before the eruption of an earthquake.  

Many a fish lay their eggs on the seashore only when there is no chance of any wave reaching up to that spot. Just imagine if they would have relied on our high-tech devices and simulations which can never be precise, even in predicting the normal course of high and low tides, beyond a range of several hundred meters (of the size and range of strike of the waves) and an hour or so (of the instance of high or low tide). A mistake of even half a minutes and a foot in the ‘calculations’ of the fish would risk its eggs being swept away by the waves.  But see! These marine creatures never miss it, as though the ocean itself adjusts its waves with due care for their safety.  

Many examples of this kind make us pause and feel humble and small before the wonder-filled wisdom of Nature at so-called sub-human levels. How and why Nature has gifted the tiny creatures with such marvelous sensors and processors?  Is it only to remind man not to boast of his technological and innovative achievements and desist from ruling over the entire animal kingdom? Or is it to offer a natural help to mankind to be alert and protected from calamities? As stressed by noted scientist Dr. Bill Schul in his interesting book “The Psychic Power of Animals”, we should respect the existence of animals and birds and attempt to know and modify our predictions about the happenings in Nature with their help.